Autism prevalence among school-aged children in NI reaches 5.9%, Department of Health reports

The Department of Health has today (Thursday 15th May) released its annual report, The Prevalence of Autism (including Aspergers Syndrome) in School Age Children in Northern Ireland Annual Report 2025, revealing that an estimated 5.9% of school-aged children were identified with autism during the 2024/25 academic year.

The figures, drawn from the Northern Ireland School Census provided by the Department of Education, offer an in-depth look at how autism is distributed across gender, geographic location, and socioeconomic status throughout the region.

Gender Disparities in Autism Prevalence

One of the report’s most notable findings is the significant disparity in autism prevalence between boys and girls. Boys were 2.5 times more likely to be identified with autism than their female counterparts.

In the information derived from the 2024/25 Northern Ireland School Census, 8.3% of males were identified with autism compared with 3.4% of females. This ratio is similar to that reported by the National Autistic Society (NAS) who have stated the most recent estimate for male-to-female autism ratio is nearer to 3:1.

The figures for 2019/20 and onwards are not directly comparable to previous years; however, the prevalence rate has been consistently higher for males than females both before and after 2019/20. Furthermore, it has increased for both males and females with the gender gap inflating over the years.

Due to a change in the way the school census collect autism data, the figures from 2019/20 onwards are not directly comparable to previous years. However, the general increasing prevalence rate among school aged children over recent years is mirrored by the increasing number of children (all ages) diagnosed with autism, recorded by the Health and Social Care Trusts.

In 2024/25, the highest prevalence rate recorded was 7.9% for those in Year 8 (children aged 11-12), followed by 7.8% for those in Year 9 (children aged 12-13), and the lowest was 2% for those in Primary 1 (children aged 4-5).

Generally, there is a steady rise in the prevalence rate of autism from Primary 1 up to Year 8 (4 - 12 years old) in 2024/25. This trend has been observed in previous years and may link in with children being diagnosed with autism during their early school years.

Urban and Deprivation Trends Highlight Inequality

Generally, the autism prevalence rate was almost two times higher in the urban population than in the rural population in 2024/25. The difference in the proportion of children identified with autism in urban and rural areas at a regional level was statistically significant. This means that it is unlikely that the difference has occurred by chance alone.

In 2024/25, the HSC Trust with the largest difference in autism prevalence rates between the urban and rural populations was the Belfast HSC Trust (4.6 percentage points). It is worth noting that this HSC Trust has the highest overall prevalence rate and is almost exclusively urban which has a large impact upon the Northern Ireland figure. Generally, in the other HSC Trusts, there was a more even split between the autism prevalence rate in the urban and rural populations.

The difference in prevalence rate between urban and rural areas was statistically significant during 2024/25 for all HSC Trusts.

The simple gap analysis shows that the rate of autism in school aged children in the 10% most deprived areas in Northern Ireland stood at 8,111 cases per 100,000 population in 2024/25. This was almost two-fifths (38% higher than the regional average, 5,879 cases per 100,000 population, and 71% higher than the rate in the 10% least deprived areas (4,751 cases per 100,000 population).

In the years prior to 2013/14, rates were slightly higher in the least deprived areas than in the most deprived areas. However, since then the rate of autism amongst children in the most deprived areas has increased at a faster rate than in the least deprived. This has resulted in higher rates of autism being seen in the most deprived areas and a widening of the deprivation inequality gap'.

The data further highlights a geographical divide. Children living in urban areas were found to have a statistically significant higher prevalence of autism compared to those in rural communities.

Socioeconomic factors also played a key role. According to the report, the autism prevalence rate in the most deprived decile, as measured by the Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measure (MDM), was 38% higher than the national average.

Autism and Special Educational Needs (SEN)

Special Educational Needs (SEN) is a stage approach to the identification of children with learning difficulties, the assessment of their educational need and the making of any special educational provision necessary to meet those needs. The previous five stage approach was replaced by a three stage approach in 2021, where stage 1 is school delivered special provision, stage 2 is school and external provision, and stage 3 represents a Statement of SEN.

Of all children diagnosed with autism in 2024/25, 18% were identified as not having any special educational needs. This rate remained unchanged to the proportion recorded in 2022/23. Almost two-thirds of the children diagnosed with autism (63%) had a Statement of Special Educational Needs (SEN stage 3), whilst almost a fifth (19%) were in either SEN stage 1 or 2. Please note that, as the SEN process is dynamic, with children moving between stages, the SEN stages must be treated as a 'snapshot' at the time of the Northern Ireland School Census.

In terms of educational support, the report noted that 18% of children diagnosed with autism had no special educational needs identified. Meanwhile, 63% were categorised at Stage 3 of the Special Educational Needs (SEN) Assessment, meaning they held a formal Statement of SEN.

Annual Publication and Data Sources

This annual publication is compiled by the Community Information Branch of the Department of Health. The statistics, sourced from the Department of Education’s School Census, cover diagnoses reported by Health and Social Care Trusts and are broken down by area, gender, school year group, urban/rural location, deprivation levels, and SEN status.

The Department stated that similar statistics for the 2025/26 school year are expected to be released in May 2026.

The full report is now available online at: https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/articles/autism-statistics