Autism diagnoses in Northern Ireland schools hit record high as services face mounting pressure

Autism diagnoses among school-age children in Northern Ireland have reached their highest recorded level, with new figures revealing 18,472 pupils are now identified as autistic — while politicians and families warn support systems are becoming overwhelmed.

The latest annual prevalence report published by the Department of Health shows autism prevalence among school-age children rose to 6.2% during the 2025/26 school year.

That represents an increase of 0.3 percentage points from 2024/25 and continues a sustained upward trend recorded across every Health and Social Care Trust area in Northern Ireland.

The figures, extracted from the Northern Ireland School Census provided by the Department of Education, also reveal widening deprivation gaps, major regional variation, and growing pressure on education and health services.

For families across the Northern Trust area — including Ballymena, Larne, Carrickfergus, Ballymoney, Coleraine and surrounding communities — the report paints one of the starkest pictures anywhere in Northern Ireland.

Northern Trust among highest prevalence rates in Northern Ireland

The Northern Health and Social Care Trust recorded 5,783 school-age children diagnosed with autism — the highest total number of diagnosed pupils of any Trust area in Northern Ireland.

Its prevalence rate stood at 8.0%, making it the second-highest autism prevalence area in Northern Ireland behind Belfast Trust at 8.4%. The data should also be viewed in the context of population size.

The Northern Health and Social Care Trust is the largest Trust in Northern Ireland, serving a population of approximately 479,266 people according to Census 2021 data — significantly larger than every other regional Trust area. That larger population base may partly help explain why the Trust also recorded the highest overall number of diagnosed school-age children, with 5,783 pupils identified as autistic.

However, even accounting for scale, the Trust’s prevalence rate still remains well above the Northern Ireland average of 6.2%, underlining the significant demand facing local autism and support services.

The report also found the Northern Ireland urban population had a statistically significant higher prevalence rate of autism than the rural population, with Northern Trust showing a particularly notable urban-rural divide.

Approximately one in every 12 school-age children in the Northern Trust area is now identified as autistic.

Across Northern Ireland, the Trust prevalence breakdown was:

• Belfast HSC Trust — 8.4%

• Northern HSC Trust — 8.0%

• South Eastern HSC Trust — 6.2%

• Western HSC Trust — 5.0%

• Southern HSC Trust — 4.3%

The Department stated:

“The prevalence rate of autism has gradually risen in all Trusts in recent years.”

Deprivation gap widens as inequality deepens

The report identified deprivation as one of the strongest trends linked to autism prevalence.

Children living in the most deprived areas of Northern Ireland recorded autism prevalence rates 74% higher than those living in the least deprived communities.

The prevalence rate in the most deprived decile stood at 8.6%, compared with 4.9% in the least deprived areas.

The report also found autism prevalence in the most deprived areas was over 38% higher than the Northern Ireland average.

Officials said the deprivation gap has widened substantially over time.

Before 2013/14, autism prevalence rates were slightly higher in the least deprived areas. However, rates in deprived communities have since risen at a much faster pace.

The findings are likely to intensify pressure on already stretched health, education and social care systems across Northern Ireland.

Boys remain far more likely to receive diagnosis

The report showed a major gender divide remains in autism diagnoses.

Males were found to be 2.3 times more likely than females to be identified with autism.

Male prevalence stood at 8.6%, compared with 3.7% among females.

The highest prevalence rates were recorded among Year 9 pupils at 8.5%, followed by Year 8 and Year 10 pupils at 8.3%.

Primary 1 pupils recorded the lowest prevalence rate at 1.5%, suggesting diagnoses continue to accumulate throughout early school years.

One in five autistic pupils recorded without SEN support

One of the report’s more striking findings showed that 19% of children diagnosed with autism did not have any Special Educational Needs recorded within the school system.

Meanwhile, 65% of autistic pupils were classified at Stage 3 of the Special Educational Needs Assessment process, meaning they had a formal Statement of SEN.

The Department cautioned the school census only captures children already identified as autistic, meaning some children may still be progressing through assessment pathways and could later receive diagnoses.

Officials also warned that apparent variation between Trust areas may partly reflect organisational differences in assessment and diagnostic systems, rather than solely underlying prevalence differences.

Political pressure grows over overwhelmed autism services

The publication of the report comes amid increasing political pressure over autism support services and waiting times across Northern Ireland.

Ahead of an Alliance motion on autism services, heard this week in the Assembly on Tuesday, May 12, Nuala McAllister MLA warned families were being left without the support they desperately need.

She said autism services are “severely overwhelmed”.

“Imagine waiting years to understand why your child is struggling, only to find yourself without any support,” she said.

“Thousands of families across Northern Ireland seeking respite and short-break services face a postcode lottery, with some receiving little support while others receive nothing at all. This is the unfair reality.”

Ms McAllister said the findings of the Independent Autism Reviewer’s Annual Report covering September 2024 to March 2026 highlighted the negative mental health effects linked to lengthy assessment waiting times.

She also pointed to wider mental health pressures experienced by autistic individuals living in what she described as a society centred around “neurotypical ideals”.

“Our system is broken, and individuals with autism and their families should not have to fight to have their voices heard,” she said.

Alliance called on the Health Minister to urgently deliver fit-for-purpose autism services, reduce waiting lists, implement the Autism Strategy and provide better support for struggling families.

Stormont hears emotional testimony from families

During the motion debate this week in the Assembly, TUV North Antrim Timothy Gaston secured backing for an amendment calling for meaningful action in support of autistic children and families.

Mr Gaston described autism support pressures as “one of the most pressing and emotionally draining realities faced by thousands of families across Northern Ireland”.

He told the Assembly many parents feel “abandoned by the system and let down”.

Speaking about one family’s experience, he said:

“One parent described to me what life was like raising an autistic child. They said that being an autism parent means existing in a constant state of fight or flight, always having to be 10 steps ahead, always looking for danger, always being on guard and never fully relaxing or switching off.”

Mr Gaston also criticised the lack of structured post-19 support for autistic young people in Northern Ireland.

He said England operates a statutory education, health and care plan framework extending support until age 25, while Northern Ireland has “no equivalent legislative safety net”.

He claimed Northern Ireland receives sufficient Barnett consequential funding to operate similar schemes.

“For every £1 spent on such a scheme in the south of England, the Executive get £1.24,” he told the Assembly.

He also highlighted increasing numbers of families travelling privately for therapies unavailable locally, including occupational therapy and Tomatis therapy in Dublin.

Quoting one parent, he said:

“That parent is not enjoying family life or planning for a summer holiday; they are preparing for battle with the system.”

He said autism’s impact on siblings is often overlooked, with some children growing up without what many families would consider a ‘normal’ childhood because so much of family life revolves around routines, safety and support needs.

Rising diagnoses intensify pressure on families and services

The overall trend identified by the Department remained clear — autism prevalence continues rising across every region of Northern Ireland.

For schools, families and services across the Northern Trust area and beyond, the latest figures underline growing demand, increasing complexity and mounting pressure on systems many families already believe are struggling to cope.

---

Full data and statistics breakdown

• NI school-age autism prevalence (2025/26): 6.2%

• Total diagnosed school-age children in NI: 18,472

• Increase from previous year: +0.3 percentage points

• Northern Trust prevalence: 8.0%

• Northern Trust diagnosed pupils: 5,783

• Belfast Trust prevalence: 8.4%

• South Eastern Trust prevalence: 6.2%

• Western Trust prevalence: 5.0%

• Southern Trust prevalence: 4.3%

• Male autism prevalence: 8.6%

• Female autism prevalence: 3.7%

• Male-to-female likelihood ratio: 2.3 times

• Year 9 prevalence: 8.5%

• Year 8 prevalence: 8.3%

• Year 10 prevalence: 8.3%

• Primary 1 prevalence: 1.5%

• Most deprived area prevalence: 8.6%

• Least deprived area prevalence: 4.9%

• Gap between most and least deprived areas: 74%

• Most deprived areas above NI average: over 38%

• Children with autism and no SEN recorded: 19%

• Children with Statement of SEN: 65%

• Schools affected by industrial action data loss in 2023/24: approximately 25%

• Barnett consequential funding comparison cited by Timothy Gaston: £1.24 received in NI for every £1 spent on equivalent schemes in the south of England