TUV warns of “seismic” threat to Northern Ireland fishing industry as major quota cuts loom

The Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) has issued a stark warning that Northern Ireland’s fishing industry is facing an existential crisis, following new scientific advice recommending dramatic quota cuts for key species in 2026.

Speaking in the Northern Ireland Assembly on Tuesday, November 18, TUV MLA Timothy Gaston said the fishing sector was “standing on the edge of a cliff” and called for “swift and decisive intervention” to prevent the collapse of what he described as “one of our oldest and proudest but most vulnerable industries.”

Last week, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) published its latest scientific guidance, proposing a 70% reduction in the total allowable catch (TAC) for mackerel in the north-east Atlantic next year. ICES also recommended a 35% cut to nephrops—a vital species for Northern Ireland’s small and medium-sized boats—in Irish Sea functional unit 15.

Gaston said:

“Those are not minor adjustments, but seismic shocks that hit two species on which Northern Ireland’s fleet most depends. Those cuts mean something very simple for crews in Kilkeel, Ardglass and Portavogie. They mean that boats are tied up, income is slashed and processors are running idle.”

He warned that once capacity was lost, it could not easily be restored:

“Once a vessel is sold off, a processor closes its doors or a skilled team is broken up, the industry cannot simply be switched back on again when the science changes. The capacity is gone, the skills are gone and the supply chain is gone, and the fishing community is left hollowed out.”

Gaston said the crisis was worsened by long-term disadvantages, including fuel costs, crew shortages and restricted access to alternative grounds. He added:

“Add to that the continued regulatory constraints of the protocol and the Windsor framework and you have a fleet that is exposed on every side, scientifically, economically and politically.”

He pressed Agriculture Minister Andrew Muir to set out what assessment had been made of the cumulative impact of the proposed cuts and what defence had been mounted of Northern Ireland’s share. Gaston warned:

“If those proposals proceed unchallenged, and if your Department fails to act, the devastation for the fishing industry will be real and unrepairable.”

Additional Warning Issued to Westminster

TUV leader Jim Allister KC MP has also written to the relevant UK Minister urging immediate intervention, focusing on the proposed reduction of the Irish Sea herring quota.

In his letter, Allister described the cuts as “unsustainable”, noting that the average TAC between 2018 and 2024 stood at around 7,700 tonnes. The 2025 quota fell sharply to 5,233 tonnes—a 32% reduction that translated into a £3.2 million loss across the supply chain.

Allister warned that if ICES advice for 2026 is implemented, the TAC would fall again to 2,935 tonnes, representing a 29% further cut and a cumulative 61% quota drop over two years—equivalent to a £6.1 million loss compared with recent averages.

He wrote:

“This proposed extreme reduction in Irish Sea herring quota threatens the boats, factories and fishing communities that rely on this sustainable fishery: For a fishery so embedded into our coastal communities to lose 61% of its value over a 2 year period could create a serious knock-on effect for Ardglass, Kilkeel and Portavogie and the wider fishing communities.”

Allister said experts believe the model underpinning the ICES advice is flawed, arguing that AFBI surveys show “consistently” healthy herring stocks. He noted that ICES itself plans a new benchmark to improve the model, but this will take years—even though the recommended cuts would take effect immediately.

He warned:

“The industry will fail if we wait on the model to be sorted… We cannot wait for the model to be fixed and for flawed advice to devastate this sustainable and important local industry.”

Calling for immediate action, Allister urged Defra to secure a TAC of 6,000–7,000 tonnes for 2026 to provide stability while modelling issues are resolved.

He concluded:

“If this is not resolved it will result in a disproportionate and negative impact on the Northern Irish fishing industry, communities and economy. Accordingly, I appeal for your help.”