Ryanair profits fall 15% despite passenger growth as airline warns of higher fares

Monday 2 November 2026

Ryanair has reported a 15% fall in half-year profits despite carrying almost seven million more passengers, as soaring jet-fuel costs put pressure on the airline’s finances and raise the prospect of higher fares next year.

The low-cost carrier recorded a profit after tax of €2.15 billion for the six months to September 2026, down from €2.54 billion during the same period last year.

Passenger numbers increased by 6% to 125.8 million, while average fares fell by 4% to €55.70, offering some relief to travellers during the busy summer season.

However, Ryanair has warned that European airfares could rise significantly in 2027 as airlines face substantially higher fuel bills, with the company itself anticipating an additional €2 billion in costs.

More passengers but falling profits

Ryanair’s latest financial results highlight the growing pressure on airlines despite continued demand for travel.

Total revenue increased by 3% to €10.08 billion, but operating costs climbed by 10% to €7.69 billion, outpacing revenue growth.

The airline said the price of jet fuel not covered by its existing fuel-price agreements had doubled, reaching approximately $130 per barrel. Around 20% of its fuel requirements were exposed to these higher prices.

Chief executive Michael O’Leary also attributed lower fares to uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict, which he said had encouraged customers to delay bookings. The timing of Easter also affected comparisons with the previous year.

Key figures from Ryanair’s half-year results

• Passengers: 125.8 million, up 6% from 119 million.

• Average fare: €55.70, down 4% from €58.

• Revenue: €10.08 billion, up 3% from €9.82 billion.

• Operating costs: €7.69 billion, up 10% from €6.96 billion.

• Profit after tax: €2.15 billion, down 15% from €2.54 billion.

• Average aircraft occupancy: 95%, unchanged from last year.

The airline's second-quarter performance showed a similar pattern, with passenger numbers increasing by 5% to 64.5 million while profits declined by 6% to €1.61 billion.

The figures illustrate how carrying more passengers does not necessarily translate into higher profits when fuel and other operating expenses rise faster than income.

Warning of significantly higher airfares in 2027

Of particular concern to travellers is Ryanair’s warning that higher fuel costs could lead to more expensive flights across Europe next year.

The airline has protected itself against much of the current volatility by securing 80% of its fuel requirements for the financial year ending March 2027 at approximately $67 per barrel.

However, those lower-cost arrangements will gradually expire, leaving the airline facing substantially higher prices for its next financial year.

Ryanair estimates that its annual fuel bill could increase by approximately €2 billion, based on current forward prices.

Mr O’Leary said:

“While we believe European short haul airfares will increase materially to reflect these much higher jet-fuel prices and competitor capacity reductions, this is still unlikely to provide a full offset for an estimated c.€2bn increase (based on current forward prices) in our FY28 fuel bill.”

The warning does not amount to a confirmed increase in ticket prices. Actual fares will depend on demand, competition, fuel prices and the availability of flights.

For passengers travelling from Northern Ireland, including those using Belfast International Airport, the development raises questions about the cost of European holidays and short breaks during 2027.

Potential cost savings and pay freezes

Ryanair is also reviewing expenditure across its operations as it prepares for the anticipated increase in fuel costs.

The company said potential measures include renegotiating airport agreements, reducing staffing requirements relative to operations and making greater use of artificial intelligence to improve efficiency.

Temporary pay freezes could also be considered as existing labour agreements come up for renewal.

Mr O’Leary said the airline was examining costs across its group businesses, including “maturing labour agreements (which may require temporary pay freezes), lower crewing ratios and increased use of AI to drive further operational and back-office/support functions productivity.”

These are measures under consideration rather than confirmed decisions.

New aircraft and 126 additional routes planned

Despite the financial pressures, Ryanair intends to continue expanding its network.

The airline has announced 126 additional routes and a new base at Rimini in Italy for summer 2027.

It also expects to introduce its first 16 Boeing 737 MAX 10 aircraft in spring 2027, subject to the necessary regulatory certification and delivery arrangements.

Ryanair says the new aircraft will offer 20% more seats while using 20% less fuel than the aircraft they are intended to replace, helping to reduce operating costs per passenger.

However, the company has already lowered its passenger forecast for the current financial year from 216 million to 214 million, citing its decision to reduce exposure to expensive, unhedged fuel.

Winter passenger numbers between November and March are now expected to remain broadly unchanged compared with last year.

For the following financial year, Ryanair is targeting more than 220 million passengers, representing growth of approximately 3%.

The airline said it would continue directing aircraft towards countries and airports offering lower aviation taxes and charges, while reducing capacity in higher-cost markets.

No specific changes to Northern Ireland routes or services were confirmed in the financial announcement.

Uncertainty remains over full-year profits

Ryanair said demand for flights during its third financial quarter remained strong, with fares trending modestly ahead of the equivalent period last year.

However, passengers are continuing to book closer to departure dates, making it more difficult for the airline to predict future earnings.

The company has therefore declined to provide a meaningful profit forecast for the full financial year ending March 2027.

It also highlighted the potential impact of continuing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, further fuel-price increases, economic disruption and European air traffic control problems.

For travellers, the immediate picture is mixed: Ryanair is carrying more passengers at lower average fares, but the financial pressures facing the airline could make that value harder to maintain.

The key question for those planning holidays and flights in 2027 will be how much of the expected increase in fuel costs airlines pass on to passengers, and whether competition keeps ticket prices affordable.