NI economy hits record highs as Aiken cautions on Windsor Framework impact

Ulster Unionist Party MLA Steve Aiken

Ulster Unionist Party MLA Steve Aiken has welcomed a revised economic growth forecast for Northern Ireland, but cautioned that EU regulations and the Windsor Framework risk undermining progress.

Danske Bank has increased its outlook for 2025, now projecting growth of 1.1%. While modest, the UUP Finance Spokesperson said the revision showed resilience in the private sector.

Mr Aiken said:

“While the new rate of 1.1% isn’t spectacular, it does indicate that our private sector is more than just muddling through. However, the additional fiscal costs and administrative burdens of the inequitable Windsor Framework are further braking this growth.”

He warned that unresolved issues over Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreements and impending changes to the Union Customs Code could further damage Northern Ireland’s competitiveness.

“Moreover, delays in any SPS agreement and the forthcoming burdens from changes to the Union Customs Code, with increasing divergence, will also negatively impact our economy,” he added.

Mr Aiken also pointed to opportunities from international trade, particularly tariff advantages between the UK and EU in the United States market.

“The tariff advantages between the UK and the EU in US trade should also boost Northern Ireland’s growth. However, any attempts by the EU to stifle this growth must be resisted.”

Strong growth across services, retail and production

The latest Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency (NISRA) figures published today highlight record-breaking output across key sectors:

• Services sector: Output rose by 2.4% in Q2 2025 and 3.4% year-on-year, reaching a series high. Compared with pre-pandemic levels, services are up 13.5%.

• Retail sector: Output increased by 4.7% in Q2 and surged by 12.1% over the year, also setting a new record. Retail output is now 7.5% above pre-Covid levels.

• Production sector: Output climbed by 1.2% in Q2 and 3.2% annually, with growth across all major industries. Production is now 5.7% higher than at the end of 2019.

Northern Ireland’s growth rates outpaced those of the wider UK in several areas, with services, retail and production all showing stronger performance compared to Great Britain.

Balancing optimism with caution

The figures indicate that Northern Ireland’s economy has not only recovered from the pandemic but is expanding at a faster rate than many parts of the UK. However, political and regulatory uncertainty remains a concern.

Mr Aiken’s intervention underscores the ongoing debate about the long-term implications of the Windsor Framework and EU alignment on Northern Ireland’s economic competitiveness.