More light, less heat: New research finds Northern Ireland wants facts, not slogans, in Irish unity debate

Stormont Parliament Buildings, Belfast. (Photo: Nigel McDowell/Ulster University)

A major new study has found that people across Northern Ireland want any future debate on Irish unity to be driven by evidence, planning and practical answers rather than political rhetoric, with the experience of Brexit continuing to shape public attitudes towards constitutional change.

Research published on Wednesday, July 1, by Ulster University suggests the conversation around Northern Ireland’s constitutional future is increasingly defined by caution, uncertainty and a desire for credible information on what life would actually look like after either constitutional change or remaining within the United Kingdom.

The study, titled More Light, Less Heat: Navigating Debate on a Constitutional Referendum in Northern Ireland, found that while there is broad interest in discussing the region’s future, the outcome of any future referendum remains unclear and unpredictable.

Brexit still casts a long shadow

One of the strongest findings from the research was the continuing influence of the 2016 Brexit referendum on how people approach constitutional questions today.

Participants repeatedly pointed to concerns about entering a major constitutional vote without sufficient preparation, clear information or agreed facts.

Issues raised included healthcare provision, pensions, taxation, public services, business impacts and economic stability — all areas respondents said would require detailed explanation before voters could make informed decisions.

For some participants, Brexit made constitutional change appear more realistic and achievable. For others, it created feelings of uncertainty, mistrust and concern about unforeseen consequences.

The research concludes that lessons from previous referenda, particularly Brexit, have heightened public expectations around transparency and planning before any future vote on Northern Ireland’s constitutional position takes place.

Beyond a simple unionist versus nationalist divide

Researchers found that public opinion on Irish unity is far more nuanced than the traditional political narrative often suggests.

Rather than representing two fixed positions with a small group of undecided voters in the middle, the study found many people are weighing emotional, practical and economic considerations simultaneously.

Questions of identity and sovereignty remain important, but participants increasingly focused on everyday realities and quality of life.

For many respondents, the central question was not simply whether Northern Ireland should remain in the United Kingdom or join a united Ireland, but what either option would actually mean in practice for themselves, their families and their communities.

The findings point towards what researchers describe as a more fluid electorate seeking practical information over ideological arguments and political positioning.

Private conversations easier than public debate

The report also identified a clear difference between people’s willingness to discuss constitutional issues privately compared to publicly.

While many participants said they were comfortable discussing the issue with family and friends, there was significantly greater unease surrounding public debate.

Researchers said this reflected the continuing sensitivity of constitutional issues in Northern Ireland, with conversations about borders and identity often carrying equal measures of hope, anxiety and uncertainty.

The study was designed specifically to examine attitudes beyond political institutions and party politics, seeking instead to understand how ordinary people engage with the debate in everyday life.

Its findings suggest there is growing demand for discussions centred on evidence, lived experience and practical implications rather than political point scoring or traditional tribal positions.

Trust in politicians remains low

Another significant finding was low public confidence in political figures to lead any future constitutional conversation.

Instead, participants expressed a preference for a broader range of voices to be involved, including academics, business leaders, civic organisations and Citizens’ Assemblies.

Researchers concluded that campaigners on all sides still have considerable work to do to convince voters both of the value of holding a referendum and of the merits of their preferred constitutional outcome.

The report warns that the mistakes of previous referenda — where outcomes were not fully anticipated and details remained unclear — should not be repeated.

It argues there is considerably more movement and uncertainty within public opinion than political debate often acknowledges, creating both challenges and opportunities for a different style of conversation in the years ahead.

Call for credible evidence and detailed planning

Dr Jonny Byrne, Senior Lecturer in Criminology at Ulster University, said the research highlighted the complexity of public opinion on Northern Ireland’s future.

He said:

“This conversation is far more nuanced than often portrayed, with people weighing up challenging emotional and practical considerations rather than simply aligning themselves along traditional positions.

“Our participants sent a clear message that any future debate about Irish unity must be grounded in credible evidence, detailed planning and an honest assessment of the consequences.

“The experience of Brexit has heightened expectations that this cannot be another vote defined by uncertainty or lack of clarity.”

The research was funded through the Department of Foreign Affairs Reconciliation Fund and was informed by face-to-face surveys with 800 people across Northern Ireland during autumn 2025, alongside detailed interviews with key stakeholders.

Why it matters locally

While constitutional debate often dominates political headlines, the research suggests many people across Northern Ireland are far more focused on how any future change would affect everyday life.

Healthcare waiting lists, pensions, taxation, jobs, public services and economic stability emerged as central concerns among participants.

The study indicates that, regardless of political identity, voters increasingly expect detailed answers to practical questions before supporting any major constitutional change.

For now, researchers conclude that Northern Ireland’s constitutional future remains open, uncertain and far more complex than the traditional binary debate often presented in public discourse.