More deaths than births as Mid and East Antrim undergoes major population shift

Thursday 24 September 2026

More people are now dying than being born in Mid and East Antrim, marking a striking reversal from little more than a decade ago as the borough’s population becomes older and overall growth stalls.

New population estimates published by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) today reveal a wider demographic change unfolding across Northern Ireland — but the picture across the greater County Antrim area is particularly revealing.

Mid and East Antrim’s population remained broadly stable in the year to June 2025, while neighbouring Causeway Coast and Glens is now the only council area in Northern Ireland with fewer residents than it had a decade ago. Antrim and Newtownabbey provides a contrasting picture, with a younger population profile and stronger recent growth.

Births and deaths have switched places

The longer-term change in Mid and East Antrim is perhaps best illustrated by what has happened to births and deaths.

In the year to mid-2012, around 1,600 babies were born in the borough while 1,137 people died — meaning births exceeded deaths by more than 460.

By the year to mid-2024, that position had reversed. There were around 1,325 births compared with 1,436 deaths, leaving 111 more deaths than births.

That represents a swing of around 570 people in the annual natural population balance in just 12 years. More importantly, the reversal forms part of a pattern across recent years rather than an isolated one-year change.

It means migration — people moving into and out of the borough — has become increasingly important in determining whether Mid and East Antrim’s population grows, remains stable or falls.

Older residents already outnumber children

The change is happening alongside another important shift in the make-up of the local population.

Earlier council-level estimates showed 20.3% of Mid and East Antrim residents were aged 65 and over, compared with 18.4% aged under 16. Around 61.3% were aged between 16 and 64.

Put simply, older residents already outnumber children in Mid and East Antrim.

That matters beyond the statistics. The balance between children, working-age adults and older residents influences future demand for schools, healthcare and social care, the types of homes communities need and the size of the available workforce.

Causeway Coast and Glens stands alone

The picture becomes even more striking further north.

Between 2015 and 2025, the population of Causeway Coast and Glens fell by 0.2%, making it the only one of Northern Ireland’s 11 council areas to have a smaller population than it did ten years earlier.

Every other council area recorded growth over that decade, ranging up to an 8.1% increase in Lisburn and Castlereagh.

The latest figure continues a longer pattern of exceptionally weak population growth in Causeway Coast and Glens. Previous NISRA analysis showed its population had increased by just 0.4% between 2013 and 2023 — at that point the weakest ten-year growth of any Northern Ireland council.

Like Mid and East Antrim, its population also has an older profile. Earlier council figures showed 20.2% of residents were aged 65 and over, compared with 19.3% aged under 16.

A different picture in Antrim and Newtownabbey

Cross into Antrim and Newtownabbey and the demographic picture changes noticeably.

Earlier estimates showed 19.8% of its population was aged under 16 and 17.8% aged 65 and over, while 62.4% was aged between 16 and 64 — giving the borough a younger profile than either Mid and East Antrim or Causeway Coast and Glens.

Its population has also grown more strongly. NISRA identified Antrim and Newtownabbey as Northern Ireland’s fastest-growing council area in the year to mid-2023, when its population increased by 0.8%, with migration playing an important role. By mid-2024 its population had reached approximately 148,100 following further growth of around 800 people, or 0.5%, over the year.

But underneath that growth is a striking change remarkably similar to the trend elsewhere.

In the year to mid-2012, Antrim and Newtownabbey recorded around 1,884 births and 1,042 deaths — leaving 842 more births than deaths. By mid-2024, there were around 1,417 births and 1,369 deaths, reducing that natural population increase to just 48.

In 12 years, the borough’s annual surplus of births over deaths had therefore fallen by around 94%.

Population growth across NI almost stops

The three boroughs form part of a much wider change now taking place across Northern Ireland.

NISRA estimates 1.93 million people were living in Northern Ireland on 30 June 2025. That was just 600 more people than a year earlier — population growth of only 0.03%.

The slowdown has been dramatic. Northern Ireland’s population increased by around 9,800 people, or 0.5%, in the year to mid-2023 and by 7,500, or 0.4%, in the following year.

Of Northern Ireland’s 11 council areas, four recorded population growth in the latest year, four experienced decline and three — Mid and East Antrim, Fermanagh and Omagh, and Ards and North Down — remained broadly stable.

Fewer babies are being born

One of the forces behind the slowdown is the shrinking gap between births and deaths.

There were an estimated 19,100 births across Northern Ireland in the year to mid-2025 — 700 fewer than the 19,800 recorded the previous year. Deaths also decreased, but by a smaller amount, falling from 17,900 to 17,600.

The result was a natural population increase of only around 1,400 people, down from approximately 1,900 the previous year.

The local figures show how that balance can eventually tip the other way. Mid and East Antrim has already experienced years in which deaths outnumber births, while even younger Antrim and Newtownabbey has seen its once sizeable natural population increase almost disappear.

Migration changes dramatically

At the same time, another major source of Northern Ireland’s recent population growth has gone into reverse.

Net migration added an estimated 5,800 people to Northern Ireland’s population in the year to mid-2024. In the latest year, it instead resulted in a net loss of around 800 people, with approximately 23,400 people moving here and 24,100 leaving.

International migration still produced a net gain of around 1,900 people, but the number arriving from abroad fell sharply — down 28.3% from 16,900 to 12,100. Around 10,200 people left Northern Ireland to live abroad.

Movement between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK went the other way. Around 13,900 people left to live elsewhere in the UK, an increase of 20.1%, contributing to a net UK migration loss of approximately 2,600 people. A year earlier that net loss had been just 200.

Northern Ireland is getting older

Behind the changes in births, deaths and migration is a fundamental shift in the age of the population.

Northern Ireland’s median age has risen to 40.6 years, up from 38.2 in 2015. In other words, half the population is now older than 40.6 and half younger.

Around 356,500 people — 18.5% of the population — are aged 65 and over, compared with approximately 378,800 children under 16, representing 19.6%.

Twenty-five years ago the balance was dramatically different. In 2000, children accounted for 24% of Northern Ireland’s population and people aged 65 and over represented just 13.1%.

The fastest growth is among the oldest residents

The change becomes even more pronounced at the oldest ages.

Northern Ireland now has an estimated 43,800 residents aged 85 and over. That number has increased by 24% in a decade — around six times faster than the overall population between 2015 and 2025.

Women account for 62.7% of people aged 85 and over, while NISRA estimates Northern Ireland is now home to 312 centenarians aged 100 or above — approximately two for every 10,000 residents.

What the changing population could mean locally

None of the figures means today’s trends will inevitably continue. Birth rates can change and migration can fluctuate substantially from year to year, while employment, housing, economic conditions and government policy can influence where people choose to live.

However, NISRA’s separate population projections illustrate what continued demographic change could mean. Under the assumptions used in those projections, Causeway Coast and Glens could have around 5,000 fewer children aged 0 to 15 by 2032 than in 2022 — a fall of 18.2% — while its total population could decrease by around 4,500, or 3.2%. Mid and East Antrim’s total population is projected to decrease by around 800, or 0.6%, over the same period.

Those projections are not forecasts and should not be read as predictions of exactly what will happen. The newly published 2025 estimates, however, show changes that are already happening: population growth across Northern Ireland has almost stopped, the population is getting older, birth numbers are falling and migration has switched from a substantial population gain to a net loss.

For Mid and East Antrim, the transformation is particularly tangible. A borough where births outnumbered deaths by more than 460 little more than a decade ago is now experiencing the reverse — while the number and needs of older residents are becoming an increasingly important part of the area’s future.