Middle East tensions could send UK petrol towards 150p, RAC warns

Escalating conflict in the Middle East could yet hit UK drivers where it hurts — at the pump — but any sharp rise in petrol prices is far from guaranteed, according to the RAC.

With oil markets reacting to geopolitical uncertainty, motorists are already seeing prices edge upwards. And while the situation remains fluid, the RAC says sustained increases in the oil price would be needed before forecourt costs climb dramatically.

RAC head of policy Simon Williams said:

“While the conflict in the Middle East undoubtedly has the potential to push up pump prices in the UK, it’s not a certainty. The oil price would have to rise significantly and stay that way for some time to have a dramatic effect.

“Forecourt prices were already on the rise due oil trading nearer to $70 a barrel in the last few weeks. Regardless of the current situation, petrol rose by a penny a litre in February and is likely to go up by another penny in the next week or so to an average of 134p a litre.

“If oil were to climb to and stay at the $80 a barrel mark, then drivers could expect to pay an average of 136p for petrol. At $90, we’d be looking at over 140p a litre and $100 would take us nearer to 150p, but it’s all too soon to know.”

Prices already edging up

Even before the latest developments overseas, oil had been trading closer to $70 a barrel in recent weeks, placing upward pressure on forecourt prices.

Petrol rose by 1p per litre in February and is expected to increase by a further penny in the coming days, bringing the UK average to around 134p per litre.

The RAC’s analysis suggests that only a sustained and substantial climb in oil prices would translate into more significant increases for drivers.

At $80 per barrel, petrol would average around 136p per litre. If oil reached $90, prices would move above 140p. A jump to $100 — and crucially, remaining at that level — could push pump prices closer to 150p per litre.

Uncertainty remains

The key factor, according to the RAC, is not short-term volatility but whether oil prices rise sharply and stay elevated for a prolonged period. Until then, motorists are likely to see gradual rather than dramatic increases.

For drivers already feeling pressure from wider living costs, the weeks ahead will be closely watched — but for now, the message is one of caution rather than certainty.