New figures reveal NI families have the lowest spending power in the UK as heating oil pressures mount
Tuesday 27 October 2026
Northern Ireland households have an average of just £137 a week remaining after taxes and essential bills, the lowest spending power anywhere in the UK, as rising fuel costs place renewed pressure on family finances.
New figures from Asda’s October 2026 Income Tracker reveal that liquid fuel prices have increased by 104.9% in the year to September, adding to the financial pressures facing households heavily dependent on oil heating.
Despite rising incomes and an increase in employment, average household spending power in Northern Ireland improved by just 33p a week between the second and third quarters of this year.
The findings highlight how quickly earlier improvements in family finances have slowed, with higher essential costs absorbing much of the benefit of increased earnings as households approach the winter months.
Northern Ireland remains bottom of UK spending power rankings
The report, independently compiled by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), measures discretionary income – the money households have remaining after taxes and essential expenditure, including groceries, housing, energy and transport.
Its latest quarterly figures reveal a substantial gap between Northern Ireland and other parts of the UK.
Average weekly household spending power in the third quarter of 2026 was:
• Northern Ireland: £137
• North East England: approximately £171
• Wales: £220
• Scotland: £272
• East of England: £288
• London: £338
• UK average: £262
Northern Ireland households have approximately £125 less in weekly discretionary income than the UK average, while the gap with the North East of England, the next lowest region, stands at £34.15.
The report also provides a more recent monthly snapshot, showing Northern Ireland’s average household spending power at £135 in September, compared with £261 across the UK.
These figures represent estimated averages rather than the amount available to every household. Individual circumstances, including income, housing costs and family size, can result in significantly different levels of financial pressure.
Heating oil dependence adds to financial pressure
One of the most significant developments identified in the report is the sharp increase in liquid fuel prices, which rose by 104.9% in the 12 months to September 2026.
The increase is particularly relevant to Northern Ireland, where most households rely on oil to heat their homes. Domestic heating oil is not covered by the Ofgem energy price cap, leaving consumers exposed to changes in market prices.
Earlier this year, falling oil prices helped ease pressure on household budgets. In the second quarter, Northern Ireland recorded annual discretionary income growth of 6.5%, its strongest performance since the beginning of 2025.
However, that growth slowed to 4.3% in the third quarter, a reduction of 2.2 percentage points.
Although average weekly discretionary income was £5.59 higher than a year earlier, it increased by only 33p compared with the previous quarter.
The slowdown means that while households are still recording some improvement in spending power, the gains have become considerably smaller as essential costs rise.
Employment increases but spending power remains lowest
The report identifies a striking contrast between Northern Ireland’s employment performance and the financial position of its households.
Gross household income increased by 3.8% over the year to the third quarter, close to the UK-wide increase of 3.9%.
Northern Ireland was also the only UK nation or region to record an increase in payrolled employment over the year to September, with numbers rising by 0.9%.
Despite these positive labour market figures, Northern Ireland continues to have the lowest average household discretionary income of any UK nation or region.
The findings demonstrate that improvements in employment and earnings have not been sufficient to close the spending power gap with the rest of the UK, particularly as households contend with higher energy and transport costs.
Fuel prices push inflation to highest level in almost a year
The wider UK figures reveal increasing pressure on household budgets as rising transport and energy costs drive inflation higher.
Consumer Prices Index inflation increased from 3.1% in August to 3.5% in September, its highest level since October 2025.
Transport was the largest contributor to inflation, with motor fuel prices rising by 29.8% over the year.
The report recorded the following average pump prices in September:
• Diesel: 192.5p per litre, up 10.7p during the month
• Petrol: 169.5p per litre, up 8.2p during the month
Housing and utilities inflation also increased to 5.3%, while core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose from 2.6% to 2.8%.
Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation remained at 1.3%, its lowest rate since September 2021, providing some relief but not enough to offset higher fuel and energy costs.
Across the UK, average household spending power stood at £261 a week in September, down 40p from August.
Annual growth in discretionary income slowed to 2.4%, its weakest rate since March 2026 and the third consecutive month of declining growth.
Essential spending increased by 4.3% over the year, outpacing gross income growth of 3.8%.
Poorest households face £76 weekly shortfall
The report also reveals the widening financial difficulties facing lower-income households across the UK.
For the poorest 20% of households, essential expenditure now exceeds gross income by an average of £76 a week.
That shortfall has worsened by £3.66 compared with a year earlier, marking the third consecutive month in which their financial position deteriorated on an annual basis.
Households in the second-lowest income group have just £11 a week remaining after essential expenditure, down £1.27 compared with September 2025.
For middle-income households, discretionary income increased by only 58p a week over the past year, leaving an average of £93 after essential costs.
The report highlights the substantial differences between income groups:
• Poorest 20%: £76 weekly shortfall
• Second-lowest 20%: £11 remaining
• Middle 20%: £93 remaining
• Second-highest 20%: £295 remaining
• Wealthiest 20%: £940 remaining
These figures relate to UK-wide household income groups rather than Northern Ireland specifically.
They illustrate how rising essential costs have a greater impact on lower-income families, whose budgets leave little or no room for unexpected expenditure.
Economist warns household pressures will persist
Sam Miley, Head of Forecasting and Thought Leadership at Cebr, linked the latest inflation figures to rising fuel prices and the wider economic consequences of conflict in the Middle East.
He said:
“September showed how distant conflict in the Middle East reaches household budgets. Higher fuel prices pushed inflation to 3.5%, while Income Tracker growth slowed to its weakest rate since March.”
Warning that further financial pressure could lie ahead, he added:
“Pressure on household finances looks set to persist. A higher energy price cap and dearer fuel will keep essential costs rising at an elevated rate, while cautious hiring by employers limits any offsetting boost to incomes. Rising core inflation also suggests that higher energy costs are increasingly feeding through to prices across the wider economy.”
Cebr expects inflation to remain elevated towards the end of 2026, with its latest report forecasting a rate of 3.7% at year-end.
The economists warn that continued increases in essential costs could leave households with limited scope to improve their discretionary spending power.
Asda responds to pressure on family budgets
Rachel Eyre, Chief Customer and Digital Officer at Asda, said the retailer recognised the difficulties facing households as families prepare for Christmas.
She said:
“Every pound saved on the weekly shop matters when budgets are stretched. With household bills continuing to put pressure on family finances and customers already planning ahead for Christmas, we're focused on helping them make their money go further.”
She added:
“That's why we've cut the price of 1,000 products and are holding those prices until after Christmas, helping customers get great value every time they shop with us.”
Winter costs threaten fragile household recovery
The latest findings show that Northern Ireland’s modest recovery in household spending power remains vulnerable to increases in essential living costs.
Although more people are in payrolled employment and average incomes are rising, the region continues to lag significantly behind the rest of the UK in the money households have available after meeting their basic needs.
For families relying on heating oil, the approach of winter brings particular uncertainty because fuel costs can change independently of the protections available to some other energy consumers.
With average discretionary income reaching just £135 a week in September, the challenge for Northern Ireland households is no longer simply whether earnings are increasing, but whether those increases can keep pace with the cost of maintaining a home, travelling to work and meeting everyday family needs.
