COVID R rate remains at 1.0 - 1.6 in NI

The Department of Health continues to publish the Covid-19 reproduction number on a weekly basis.

The current estimate of R is 1.0 - 1.6. (This is the same as last week).

• Average number of new positive tests per day last 7 days - 56.3 

• 7 day incidence based on new positive tests - 20.7 / 100k population

• 14 day incidence based on new positive tests - 36.9 / 100k population

• 7 day average of total tests (pillar 1 and 2) which are positive - 1.34%

• First COVID +ve hospital admission in last week - 14

• 7 day average number COVID occupied hospital beds - 17.0

The above indicators generally show a further increase in transmission in the last week. The 7 day rolling average for new cases has increased as has test positivity, though both are likely to be strongly influenced by a meat factory outbreak in Mid and East Antrim. 

14 day cases per 100k remain higher than the UK as a whole and ROI. This is likely to be partly explainable by increased testing in the context of the Test / Trace / Protect service.  However, there is also likely to be a more widespread increase in community transmission which is a matter of significant concern. 

Hospital admissions are increasing very slowly but are still at a low level in comparison to the first wave when there was a comparable number of cases. 

The view from both the Modelling Group and the Strategic Intelligence Group is that they will inevitably rise if cases continue to do so.