Who’s really responsible for Lough Neagh pollution? Ulster Farmers’ Union challenges 70% figure

A public row has erupted over responsibility for pollution in Lough Neagh, after the Ulster Farmers’ Union (UFU) accused NI Water of presenting “modelling as fact” in claims that 70% of water pollution originates from the agricultural sector.

The farming body has expressed “serious concern” over what it describes as inaccurate comments made by an NI Water representative, who stated that the figure was factual.

The UFU says that assertion is both misleading and inappropriate.

At the heart of the dispute is how nutrient modelling is communicated to the public. The UFU stresses that such modelling is, by its nature, an estimate based on assumptions and available data — not a definitive measurement.

UFU Deputy President John McLenaghan said:

“It is totally wrong to describe modelling as fact and more so when presenting the wrong estimated percentage alongside that. All modelling carries a degree of uncertainty and margin of error.

“Any modelling work around the apportionment of nutrients in Lough Neagh that the UFU has seen, has raised serious questions about the reliability of the data sources. That makes it impossible to treat the outputs as definitive, and they certainly should not be quoted as fact.”

The union maintains that while agriculture recognises its responsibility in improving water quality, accountability must extend beyond a single sector.

Mr McLenaghan continued:

“Farmers have been complying with increasingly stringent regulations for two decades, investing heavily in storage and following complex rules around nutrient management. Over the past month, they have worked tirelessly in extremely wet conditions to manage nutrients responsibly.

“At the same time, our members continue to report discharges of what they believe to be raw sewage into waterways. Improving water quality must be a shared responsibility.”

The UFU has confirmed it has contacted NI Water directly to highlight what it considers to be inaccuracies in the original statement. It has requested that the comments be retracted and that an apology be issued to the sector.

With water quality at Lough Neagh continuing to generate public and political scrutiny, the exchange underscores the growing sensitivity around how responsibility is measured — and communicated.

The debate over data, accountability and shared action appears far from settled.