Migration fuels Northern Ireland’s population growth to 1.93 million

Population estimates by Local Government District (mid-2024)

Migration has emerged as the main driver of Northern Ireland’s population growth, according to new figures published today (Thursday 11 September 2025) by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).

As of 30 June 2024, the population stood at 1.93 million (1,927,900), marking an annual rise of 7,500 people (0.4 per cent) compared to mid-2023. The increase was made up of 5,800 people gained through net migration and a further 1,900 from natural growth – the difference between births and deaths.

Migration trends – international inflows dominate

In the year to mid-2024, 28,200 people moved to Northern Ireland while 22,500 left to live elsewhere. This net gain of 5,800 people highlights migration’s importance in sustaining population growth.

• International migration provided the strongest boost. 16,900 people arrived from outside the UK, compared with 10,900 departures, delivering a net gain of 6,000.

• UK migration was broadly balanced, with 11,400 people moving from Great Britain and 11,600 leaving Northern Ireland in the opposite direction.

Northern Ireland’s migration flows

Compared with the previous year, both inflows and outflows fell slightly. Fewer people left Northern Ireland for destinations outside the UK (down 3.2 per cent), while arrivals from overseas dropped more sharply (down 10.4 per cent).

Long-term growth

Over the past 25 years, Northern Ireland has consistently experienced positive population growth. Even during years of lower migration and reduced natural change, numbers have continued to rise.

Between 2014 and 2024, the population increased by 84,700 people, representing an average annual growth rate of 0.5 per cent. Growth in the most recent year (0.4 per cent) represents a recovery from the recent low of 0.1 per cent recorded in 2020.

Northern Ireland’s ageing population

While migration sustains growth, the statistics underline the rapid ageing of Northern Ireland’s population.

• The median age has climbed to 40.3 years, compared with 38.1 years in 2014.

• By mid-2024, 18.1 per cent of people (349,200) were aged 65 or over, compared with 13.1 per cent in 1999.

• In contrast, the proportion of children under 16 has fallen from 24.3 per cent in 1999 to 20.0 per cent in 2024.

The 85 and over population reached 42,900, having risen by 24.6 per cent in the past decade – a growth rate five times higher than that of the overall population.

Interestingly, survival improvements have been more pronounced among men. Between 2014 and 2024, the number of men aged 85+ grew by 44.1 per cent, compared with 15.4 per cent for women. Nevertheless, women continue to outnumber men in this group, making up 62.9 per cent of those aged 85 and over.

The region also recorded 294 centenarians in mid-2024, equivalent to two people aged 100 or more for every 10,000 residents.

Regional differences

Percentage population change by Local Government District (mid-2014 to mid-2024) (ordered by population change)

Population changes were not evenly distributed across Northern Ireland’s 11 local government districts.

• Derry City and Strabane reported the fastest growth in the past year at 1.0 per cent.

• Newry, Mourne and Down was the only area to record a decline, with a fall of 0.2 per cent.

• Over the longer term, from 2014 to 2024, all districts experienced growth – ranging from just 0.4 per cent in Causeway Coast and Glens to a significant 9.0 per cent in Lisburn and Castlereagh.

Why migration matters

The NISRA figures underline how migration has overtaken natural change as the key driver of growth. With birth rates declining and life expectancy increasing, the balance of population dynamics is shifting.

In the year to mid-2024:

• Natural change contributed +1,900 people, the result of 19,800 births minus 17,900 deaths.

• Net migration added +5,800 people, providing the majority of growth.

• Other changes, such as adjustments linked to armed forces movements, produced a small decline of 200 people.

NISRA noted that net migration has remained positive since mid-2022 and is likely to remain central to Northern Ireland’s demographic profile in the years ahead.