Does the Provisional IRA still exist? UUP leader demands answers 11 years after Government assessment

Friday 16 October 2026

The UK Government is facing calls to establish whether the Provisional IRA still exists, retains an active leadership structure or has any operational capability, almost 11 years after an official security assessment concluded that the organisation remained in existence.

Ulster Unionist Party leader Jon Burrows MLA has written to the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland requesting a new assessment of all terrorist and paramilitary organisations, amid renewed political tensions surrounding Drumcree and wider efforts to bring paramilitarism to an end.

The proposed review would involve the PSNI and MI5, with independent scrutiny and published findings, and would examine republican, loyalist and dissident organisations across Northern Ireland.

Mr Burrows argues that an updated assessment is essential to establish which organisations remain active, how they operate and whether they continue to exercise influence within communities or political life.

Questions over IRA structures 11 years on

The previous UK Government assessment, published on 20 October 2015, concluded that the Provisional IRA continued to exist, although its structures had been substantially reduced.

It identified a senior leadership and Provisional Army Council, while also concluding that the organisation's leadership remained committed to peaceful political means.

The findings distinguished the organisation's continued existence from an assessment that it was pursuing a return to a terrorist campaign.

Ulster Unionist Party leader, Jon Burrows

Mr Burrows is now seeking clarity on whether those conclusions remain accurate in 2026.

He said:

“Eleven years ago next week, the Government’s own assessment confirmed that the Provisional IRA still existed, with a leadership and an Army Council. The public deserves to know whether that remains the case today.”

New report on paramilitary disbandment

The intervention comes as the UK and Irish governments have received a report from Fleur Ravensbergen recommending a mechanism to move paramilitary organisations towards disbandment.

According to Mr Burrows, the report does not identify individual organisations, reflecting the confidential nature of the engagement undertaken during its preparation.

He argues that any future process aimed at ending paramilitary activity must begin with an authoritative understanding of which groups continue to exist and how they are structured.

Mr Burrows said:

“The timing could not be more relevant. This week the UK and Irish governments received Fleur Ravensbergen’s report recommending a mechanism to move paramilitary groups towards disbandment. You cannot disband organisations you will not honestly assess. Her report, rightly given its confidential engagement, names no individual group. That makes an authoritative, published assessment of which organisations exist, and in what form, the essential foundation for any process that follows.”

The distinction is significant because a process intended to secure the disbandment of armed organisations raises questions about how their continued existence, leadership arrangements and eventual dissolution would be established.

Drumcree tensions prompt further questions

The UUP leader has also linked his request to recent events surrounding Drumcree and the Garvaghy Road protests in Portadown, where disputes over parading remain politically sensitive.

In his letter, dated Thursday 15 October, Mr Burrows refers to concerns that decisions involving a lawful parade could undermine the peace process.

He argues that such concerns warrant examination of the nature and source of any security risks, rather than assumptions about which organisations or individuals might be responsible.

The letter also highlights the involvement of mainstream republican representatives in the Garvaghy Road protests, while explicitly acknowledging that their presence does not itself establish paramilitary involvement.

Mr Burrows asks whether any proscribed organisation, its leadership or members played a role in organising, directing or influencing events.

He said:

“Recent events surrounding Drumcree add to that need. When decisions about a lawful parade are linked to risks to the peace process, people are entitled to ask about the nature and source of those risks, and whether the Provisional IRA retains any operational capability or intent. Asking that question is not an allegation. It is precisely what an honest, published assessment should answer.”

No evidence establishing Provisional IRA direction or involvement in the protests is presented in the UUP's correspondence. The party's request is for those questions to be independently assessed, rather than treating suspicion as proof.

Review would cover loyalist and republican organisations

Although the continued existence of the Provisional IRA is central to the UUP's intervention, the proposed assessment would extend to all terrorist and paramilitary organisations in Northern Ireland.

In his letter, Mr Burrows asks for examination of their continuing structures, capabilities, access to weapons, criminal activities and political influence.

He also calls for a distinction between actions directed by an organisation and those undertaken independently by individual members.

That distinction could be important when assessing whether criminality, intimidation or public disorder reflects organised paramilitary activity or the conduct of individuals without organisational authorisation.

Mr Burrows said:

“The security assessment must apply equally to republican, loyalist and dissident groups. Sensitive intelligence must be protected, but a substantive public report would replace speculation with evidence.”

The proposed approach would therefore examine the wider paramilitary landscape rather than focusing exclusively on one organisation or political tradition.

Secretary of State asked for publication timetable

The UUP leader has requested that any new assessment be informed by the PSNI and MI5, independently scrutinised and made public to the extent possible without compromising sensitive intelligence.

His letter argues that publishing substantive findings would provide a stronger evidence base for decisions about paramilitary activity, intimidation and the protection of communities.

Mr Burrows concluded:

“I have asked the Secretary of State to confirm whether he will commission this work and to set out a timetable for publication.”

The request places a decision before the Northern Ireland Office on whether to revisit the Government's 2015 findings at a time when renewed efforts are being discussed to bring paramilitary organisations towards disbandment.

For now, the central questions remain unanswered: whether the Provisional IRA retains the structures identified in 2015, what capabilities existing paramilitary organisations possess, and whether the Government will commission a new public assessment to establish the position.