AgriSearch urges rethink on NAP proposal amid billions in potential agri-food losses

Jason Rankin, AgriSearch Strategy Manager, Sean Kane, AgriSearch Operations Manager and Professor Gerry Boyle, AgriSearch Chair.

A newly released report from AgriSearch has raised serious concerns over the economic impact of proposed changes to Northern Ireland’s Nutrients Action Programme (NAP), warning of catastrophic consequences for the agri-food sector and rural communities.

The interim economic impact assessment, developed in collaboration with key industry stakeholders, forecasts that DAERA’s proposed phosphorus restrictions and expansion of buffer strips could inflict losses exceeding £1.56 billion annually across the supply chain.

The report, which draws on data from a broad cross-section of Northern Ireland farms, calls into question the financial viability of the measures set to be introduced under the 2026–2029 NAP.

Severe economic implications

At the heart of the proposals is a phosphorus balance threshold of 8kg per hectare and increased buffer strip requirements on arable land—measures which AgriSearch warns would trigger “widespread economic disruption.”

According to the report, the consequences would include:

• Decreased farm resilience

• Heightened financial pressure on already indebted businesses

• Distortion of the land market

• Risk to the economic viability of agri-food processors

• Adverse effects on rural communities and the environment

The report further highlights the threat to food security, citing concerns that processing facilities could become uneconomic to operate under the proposed rules.

Calls for balanced policy making

Jason Rankin, Strategy Manager at AgriSearch, acknowledged the need for better water quality and nutrient management but urged a more measured approach.

“We fully recognise the importance of improving water quality and nutrient management; however, the findings of our analysis paint a stark picture of the potential consequences of current NAP proposals,” he said.

“Without careful consideration of a full economic appraisal and industry input, the proposed environmental measures could inadvertently destabilise the very foundations of our rural economy and food supply chain.”

Professor Gerry Boyle, Chair of AgriSearch, echoed these concerns, highlighting the importance of evidence-led decision-making:

“This assessment underlines the critical role of ongoing, independent research in informing policy decisions that impact the entire agri-food industry and supply chain. Evidence-backed policy making depends critically on having timely, accurate data that reflects the on-the-ground conditions.

“At AgriSearch, we remain committed to delivering rigorous research that supports a sustainable and economically viable future for agri-food in Northern Ireland.”

Next steps

AgriSearch is now calling for DAERA to undertake a comprehensive economic appraisal and consult closely with stakeholders before advancing with the proposed NAP changes. The organisation warns that failing to do so could result in unintended environmental, economic and social consequences.

The full report, AgriSearch Interim Economic Impact Assessment of Proposed Measures Within DAERA’s Nutrients Action Programme 2026-2029, is available to read online at:

🔗 AgriSearch NAP Report